A good year for desktop Linux
2010 is going to be a good year for Linux on the desktop.
No, tens of millions of Windows users aren’t going to see the light and suddenly switch. Inertia and resistance to change make a massive migration highly unlikely. At the same time, Microsoft has managed to stem the erosion from its Vista-fueled disaster, first by extending the commercial life of Windows XP on netbooks, then by releasing Windows 7.
On the other hand, there is no doubt that Linux will continue to make steady gains on the desktop next year, even though most estimates still put its market share at about only 2 percent.
Public awareness of a viable and free alternative to Windows and Mac OS X is growing, thanks in part to netbooks that brought Linux to the mass market, and the media hype over Google’s Chrome operating system.
Also, from the standpoint of usability, Linux on the desktop is improving so rapidly that it’s likely that many Windows users who do try it will never look back.
As the new year approaches, a number of developments bear watching.
Ubuntu, one of the most popular Linux distributions, will continue to get better and gain more users as it heads into its next major update, 10.4, in April. The news last week that Mark Shuttleworth would step down as chief executive of Canonical, the commercial sponsor of Ubuntu, is positive because it will free him up to focus on improving product design and quality.
“I will focus on my passions of product design and development. I want Ubuntu to succeed as the open platform of choice for almost all use types whether on netbook, notebook, desktop, server, embedded device or wherever people compute,” Shuttleworth writes in the company blog.
“I am more committed now than I have ever been. This is all about focus. I will continue to be engaged, will fund the project as needed, and have the opportunity now to focus on the areas where I can make the biggest impact.”
He continues: “I will also spend more time talking to and visiting partners and customers about what they demand from an open platform and feeding that back into the product through the community and Canonical.”
My take: expect Shuttleworth to push more deals in which Ubuntu will come factory-installed on desktop and notebook PCs from vendors such as HP, Dell and Asian manufacturers.
Of course, Ubuntu isn’t the only Linux game in town.
We are likely to see netbooks powered by Google Chrome in the second half of 2010. Curiously, Canonical is working under contract with Google to develop Chrome and sees the entry of the search giant as a positive development for Linux on the desktop.
Meanwhile, one recent study disputes Microsoft’s claim of owning 93 percent of the netbook market. ABI Research projects that 32 percent of the 35 million netbooks sold this year already run on Linux, most of which were shipped outside the United States.
Ubuntu, Intel’s Moblin and Google’s Android and Chrome OS are likely to lead the way next year, and the increasing sales of ARM-based netbooks will continue to push up the share of Linux, especially in less developed countries. ABI projects that Linux will overtake Windows on netbooks by 2013.
Elsewhere, Linux desktop development continues. The Novell-backed OpenSuse 11.2 was released last month, a week after Mandriva was made available in its final 2010.0 form. The newest versions of Linux Mint (based on Ubuntu) and Fedora (sponsored by Red Hat) were also released in the same month.
Writing in TechRepublic, Debra Shinder says Windows 7 will rule the desktop OS space in 2010. It’s an easy prediction to make, given that about 92 percent of users still run some version of Windows, and that the latest version corrects many of the problems that plagued Vista.
On the other hand, Microsoft’s pricing and restrictive licensing policies continue to make Windows unattractive to users who understand that they can get an equivalent or better operating system for free. More tech-savvy consumers, too, will realize that the “Starter Edition” of Windows 7 that is aimed at netbooks is really nothing more than good old-fashioned crippleware that nobody really wants. Those seem reason enough for some Windows users to consider making the leap to Linux.
Will 2010 be the year of the Linux desktop? Not for me. As far as I’m concerned, that milestone came and went in 2006, when I replaced my bug-infested Windows XP system at home with Ubuntu 6.06. Three years have passed, and I’ve never looked back. I’m betting more and more people will experience the same thing next year, making 2010 their year for desktop Linux.